No Dhoni. No Rohit. The two biggest names in IPL history are absent from the XI for this El Clasico at Chepauk. What remains is a fascinating contest between two teams at very different points in their season.
CSK: finding a way without Dhoni
Chennai sit seventh with three wins from eight games. Their form is patchy — two losses in the last three — but the batting has clicked. They've averaged 190.6 runs in their last five matches, with Sanju Samson leading the charge at 162 strike rate and 48.2 average this season.
The bowling unit has been a mixed bag. Akeal Hosein has been a revelation — the best specialist spinner average in the league at 18.16, and he took 4 for 17 against MI in their first meeting this season (ESPNcricinfo). Anshul Kamboj (economy 7.80) and Nathan Ellis (economy 7.79) provide solid support.
The concern is the Impact Player strategy. CSK have used an extra batter inside the powerplay twice this season and it backfired both times (ESPNcricinfo). They may bring back Mukesh Choudhary or debut Ramakrishna Ghosh to fix the balance.
MI: on the brink of elimination
Mumbai are second from bottom with just two wins from eight games. Their bowling attack has conceded at 10.83 runs per over — the worst economy rate in the league. The last five matches tell a brutal story: 192.6 runs scored per game but 198.8 conceded, a net negative of 6.2 runs.
The batting has firepower. Will Jacks and Ryan Rickelton smashed 78 in the powerplay against SRH in their last match (ESPNcricinfo). But Suryakumar Yadav is in a rut — 162 runs in 8 innings at 20.25 average, his lowest strike rate since 2019.
The bowling is a mess. Trent Boult (economy 11.72) and Shardul Thakur (economy 13.38) have been expensive. Jasprit Bumrah has just 2 wickets at an average of 132 (Cricbuzz). AM Ghazanfar (10 wickets at 19.60) is the only bright spot.
Breakdown: pace-friendly Chepauk favours the batters
This match will be played on pitch no.5 at Chepauk — the same strip where PBKS chased 210 with more than an over to spare against CSK (ESPNcricinfo). Pace and bounce are expected, allowing batters to hit through the line. The average first-innings score here is 167.3, but recent evidence suggests higher totals are possible.
CSK have won five of their last six matches against MI since 2023. The head-to-head at Chepauk also favours the home side — MI's last win here came in 2025, but CSK have dominated since.
The key matchup is CSK's spin attack (Hosein, Noor Ahmad) against MI's middle order. MI's batters have struggled against quality spin this season, and Hosein's 4 for 17 in the reverse fixture is a warning sign.
CSK have the better bowling unit, the better recent form, and home advantage. MI's leaky attack gives them little margin for error.
Prediction
CSK's bowling is significantly tighter than MI's — 9.37 runs per over conceded vs MI's 10.83. The home side also has a 60% win rate in their last five matches, while MI have lost four of their last five. The Chepauk pitch may offer pace, but CSK's spinners can still exploit MI's vulnerability against slow bowling.
The value lies in CSK's individual total. They scored 207 against MI at Wankhede earlier this season, and at home on a batting-friendly pitch, 181.5 runs is a modest line for a team averaging 190.6 in their last five games.
Match prediction: Team total: CSK over 181.5 (runs), odds 1.92
